As of 3:00 pm today the Belize, Orange Walk and Corozal Districts were placed under Tropical Storm Watch. This is in response to potential tropical cyclone 15. At 6:00 pm, that system was located about 165 miles east of Belize City moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
We spoke to the Chief Met Officer via zoom at 1:00 pm and he said it could become a low intensity tropical storm right before landfall tomorrow morning - but the rain is the biggest threat:
Ronald Gordon, Chief Met Officer
"The system has become better organized and currently has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression of a tropical storm before reaching Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tomorrow morning. Currently, the chances are 70% of it becoming a tropical storm, or depression. Regardless of whether this system becomes a tropical storm or depression. The main threat from this system for the country of Belize is going to be heavy rainfall and that activity has already started, which we are seeing outer bands of showers and thunderstorms moving across the country from this system and those are expected to continue throughout the evening and tonight and intensify into tomorrow morning. Rainfall estimates at the moment are for about 4 - 8 inches at the higher end and based on the current trajectory, the highest amount of rainfall will be in the extreme north of the country."
"Indications are that the center of the system will move somewhere north of Belize City and possibly make landfall over northern Belize or over even the Northern, or across the border in Mexico."
"At the worst case scenario of a low end tropical storm, we can expect winds of somewhere between 40 and 50 miles per hour, maximum sustained, and this will occur mostly to the north of where the system makes landfall."
"I will notify you that we have been in communication with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. And they have indicated that as of 3 p.m. this afternoon, they will be issuing advisories on potential tropical cyclone 15 and the government of Belize at that point, or within that advisory, there will be a declaration of a tropical storm watch from from Belize City northward. This system is within 24 hours of a potential landfall, and therefore residents should be paying attention and monitoring the system impacts over the country. South of Belize City will be relatively minimal in terms of winds, but the rainfall potential is for the entire country, so we need to be on alert for possible flooding."
Gordon says the storm surge is not expected to be substantial - and will affect areas north of where the system makes landfall.
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