Tonight, Tropical Storm Sara is about 155 miles southeast of Belize City. The storm is currently sitting on the northern coast of Honduras and it has virtually stalled; it is moving west at only two miles per hour.
But, the maximum sustained winds remain at 50 miles per hour -and the system is headed for Belize - making landfall early on Sunday morning.
This afternoon, the Chief Met Officer gave us the current situation and forecast Sara's storm track:
Voice of: Ronald Gordon, Chief MET Officer
"That the system will eventually, will stall for the next 24 hours or meander pretty much where it is. And then begin to make a move to the west northwest towards our shores later on Saturday with a potential landfall on Sunday morning, late could be before 6 a.m. between I would say 3 a.m. and mid day on Sunday. So there is still some uncertainty on where the system will track. But the most probable track is at the center of the cone is that the system goes and makes landfall somewhere between Dangriga and Placentia based on this current forecast."
"And after that, I will move forward a bit just to show you that we expect conditions to clear up after the system had moved away. Given the fact that it's currently over or near land and due to the interaction with the terrain of Honduras, we do not expect significant strengthening at least for the next 24 hours."
"After the system emerged off the coast of Honduras or sorry, move away, it will have a short window of opportunity to intensify before reaching us. And based on that, the current forecast has it reaching our shores at a 60 mile per hour tropical storm."
"Again, we don't want to stick too much to exact figures. So we advise residents to expect at least 50 to 70 miles per hour [wind] and potentially as worst case scenario or category one hurricane of winds of 74 miles per hour."
"That's the worst case and that's not in the forecast. In terms of the European model, it has the center of the low pressure system or sorry, of Sara or the low associated with it just off Honduras as we'd expect and advancing in time. This is tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. Pretty much at the same location, which is an indication that yes, the system will pretty much meander in that area for the next 24 hours. After that, it makes a gradual move to the west-northwest, and according to this model, moves along the coast or near the coast of Belize again early Sunday morning."
"Important to note is that both models show significant rainfall and outerbands from the system affecting the country from today. And we have observed winds gusting to near tropical storm force winds already in those bands."
"One of the stations out in the cayes recorded, I believe, about 32 to 35 knots, which is almost the lower threshold of tropical storm force winds. And that is precisely why the country is currently under a tropical storm warning, because we expect to have sustained or even possible gusts and possible sustained winds of tropical storm force winds in these outer bands."
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