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Jules Vasquez found that Guatemala already gets a whole lot of Belize citrus:

These are Belizean oranges going over to Guatemala - through the river. We'd call it smuggling but the economists call it informal trade and according to the statistics, an estimated 125 thousand boxes left Belize like this during the current season.

The farmers do it because the price per box they get in Peten, Guatemala - where they don't produce oranges - is about 10 dollars more per box than they get at the local factory, Citrus Products of Belize.

It's another symptom an industry which some experts say is in its death throes:

Jules Vasquez
"Citrus is really on its death throes right now. Do you think realistically it can be saved without a massive probably a 9 figure, eight figure infusion of funds from the government?"

Jose Mai, Minister of Agriculture
"When we allocated, I think, $10 million, ten or $15 million dollars."

But no one has taken the money. Why? Because citrus right now is a dead investment.

Jose Mai, Minister of Agriculture
"But if it was a hundred million people still wouldn''t take the money. The farmers didn't go for the money. There has to be some kind of confidence in investing."

"You asked me to invest in citrus. I would tel you "no." Until I see how the new varieties are doing. And how the whole industry is managed and structured."

"Now, we are seeing now that new varieties, Jules, are yielding good, they are looking good. And that the prices are going up. And so, look, there's only two things that motivate, well, one thing motivates a producer, it has to be profit-led."

But farmers say they cannot realize a profit selling for the price that is currently being offered at the factory in Belize:

Jules Vasquez
"But a lot of it has to do with the box price. These farmers are saying that at 15 and $16 per box, they can't make back their investment, they can't break even. They're saying the box price has to be $26, $28 or bring back the formula."

Jose Mai, Minister of Agriculture
"Yeah, well, the the citrus plant, the owners, I think, they first had the system in place, a formula that was suspended some years ago. And the farmers are saying, well, we need to bring that back, which I believe is a good idea also."

"And I can't speak for the for the plant owners because they know how that is being run. But I think they have they have financial problems, too. And so they are trying to negotiate with the producers to see if they can maintain the suspension of the of the formula and until they can pick up. But it's a very difficult situation."

A difficult situation with no easy solutions or quick fixes:

Jose Mai, Minister of Agriculture
"What took from 2008 to 2024 to die naturally cannot come back in two years three years. It will take time."

Jules Vasquez
"Do you think it can come back at all? Or are we at the point where citrus just can't go no more?"

Jose Mai, Minister of Agriculture
"Up to now more than 400 to 500,000 boxes have been delivered, which is better than last year, right?"

"Two is that we have exported 40 containers of fresh fruit to the CARICOM. And the third is that the new varieties, which we believe has a level of tolerance or resistance to the disease, are performing well today. So that is a silver lining. But if I would be a citrus farmer, I would be monitoring those varieties carefully, right?"

Monitoring - but not spending their money. Many farmers have given up their orchards - to plant more lucrative and dependable crops - because, at best, it will. Be another five years before new varieties can bear fruit.

Government has said it is prepared to subsidize the cost of citrus seedlings for farmers - but those we spoke with want a break on fuel taxes and a subsidy for fertilizers.