Again, that is just a forecast and it could change due to the unpredictable nature of the storm.
But, as of 3:00 pm the official forecast says the center of Sara will approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Some strengthening is expected and Sara should have maximum sustained winds of around 50 mph at landfall in Belize.
But, the sooner it comes, the better it is for Belize because that means the storm will have less time to strengthen. And, while Honduras is facing - we repeat - life threatening floods and landslides - the storm's contact with that landmass is keeping it from strengthening.
The Chief Met officer outlined some environmental factors working in Belize's favor:
Ronald Gordon, Chief MET Officer
"One of the factors that could prevent further strengthening is interaction with land. As I showed, the system is forecast to move very near to the coast of Honduras. And if it jogs even a bit south into the mainland Honduras, it will weaken further. However, if it remains offshore, then it will be a bit stronger. So there is still, some variance within the intensity forecast."
"Yah, the extreme worst case scenario, which is outside of the forecast right now, is perhaps a category one hurricane. We're not seeing that, but that's the extreme worst."
"Best case? It weakens further over Honduras and comes across as a depression and just be a rainfall producer. But important to note, rain is a significant hazard. If you get 10 to 15in of rainfall, that could that could significant flooding across this country."
"And it's important for persons to know that the mean fatalities from tropical systems is that the wind, it's actually the water. So be prepared."
"In regards to the peculiarity of it forming this late in the season. Not unprecedented, but yes, we know for the most part systems do not form this late, especially for us, however we did, we do know that we are transitioning or if not already, in La Nina conditions, which typically means that you would have a more active end of season, which which is what we are seeing."
"Also another favorable factor is a warm ocean current, warm ocean waters. The last I looked, we were up to about 29°C, which is one degrees Celsius above normal in our area. So those factors are contributing to, this particular late season, tropical storm."
Jules Vasuqez:
"The earlier it makes landfall, wherever it does, the less chance it does to strengthen, Am I correct?"
Ronald Gordon, Chief MET Officer
"Yes. The more it stays over that area and the closer it goes into Honduras or closer to the shore it is, it will interact with land. So again, I believe most persons are aware, but just to inform those that are not tropical cyclones cannot survive over land. They get their energy from warm ocean waters. That's the, basically the energy source. So if the center or if part of the system is impacted by land, then it will weaken or prevent. If not, we can at least prevent further strengthening. And that's what we are looking at. So the longer it stays there it is the better for us."
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