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Tonight, the swine flu fear is flooding Belize after the Pan American Health Organization this afternoon raised its alert level from 4 to 5 meaning that “a pandemic is imminent” and there is widespread human infection. PAHO’s information says that the virus has caused sustained community level outbreaks in two or more countries in one World Health Organization region. The upgrade came after the United States reported its first death –a Mexican toddler who had been hospitalized in Houston.

So we’re at stage 5, there is only one higher stage of alert, that’s stage six and experts say that we’re likely to get there soon enough. The implications in Belize are huge, everything has changed. First off, there are four suspected cases, 1 from San Pedro, 2 from Belize City and one from Orange Walk. As we understand it, all these have shown clinical signs of swine flu and blood samples have been sent to CAREC, the Caribbean Epidemiology Center.

Second, all public events have been cancelled or postponed by a directive of the Ministry of Health. Those include the annual general meeting of the Holy Redeemer Credit Union that was scheduled for tonight in Belize City, the Morgan Heritage Musical Concert which was scheduled for tomorrow night in Belize City, the University of Belize fundraising event – Spring Fling 2009, which was scheduled for Belmopan, the National Agriculture and Trade Show this weekend in Belmopan, the Cashew Fest, that was scheduled for this weekend in Crooked Tree, and the Hermanos Ponce Circus which was setting up for this weekend in Belize City.

The strategy behind all this is to limit the possibilities for any transmission in Belize – and we stress there are only four suspected cases countrywide. Still, it’s frightening – and this evening, Jacqueline Godwin spoke with Dr. Paul Edwards the pandemic influenza focal point for the Ministry of Health.

Dr. Paul Edwards, Epidemiologist
“It was only the day before that it was raised from a phase three to a phase four whereby a phase is characterized by verified human to human transmission of an animal or human animal influenza virus able to cause community level outbreaks. That was yesterday however today it was moved from a phase four to a phase five and what that signifies is that phase five is characterized by human to human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one World Health Organization region and when we are talking about regions, we are talking about places for example within the Americas or Europe or Africa etc. Phase five states that while most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of a phase five is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

What we have done, we have sent off today four samples of cases of interests that we have been investigating. We are anticipating that tomorrow very late in the evening we will start to have some of those results as well as another action that we have taken is that the Director of Health Services Dr. Michael Pitts is strongly recommending that we do not have those public gatherings and especially when we talk about major public gatherings, for example the Agricultural Fair, the Cashew Fest, the Morgan Heritage Concert, you talk about the circus, and even to the extent of the PSE examination. However he has the authority to recommend and it is the intention of the Director of Health Services to send those recommendations to the Prime Minister for his decision.”

Jacqueline Godwin,
Let’s go back to the samples that have been sent abroad to confirm whether or not they are cases of swine flu. The samples came from what districts?

Dr. Paul Edwards,
“The samples came from one in San Pedro, two in Belize City, and one in Orange Walk. They are cases of interest because in some cases, they are individuals who have presented signs or symptoms compatible with flu and there has been one who has gone to Chetumal. But we know that there is no confirmed cases in Chetumal but we know that it is in Mexico so that is when we talk about an area or a country where there are confirmed cases. Luckily for us I think our Belizeans have been concerned and there is a clear demonstration of that when we go and do the shows with people calling in and having very good and intelligent questions to ask. So I think the concern then is extremely high. I am happy to say I think that there has been a lot of dissemination of information and the media has played a very critical role in getting that information out.”

Jacqueline Godwin,
We did notice today that many taxi drivers, even in Belmopan, were wearing their masks so indeed the concern is out there.

Dr. Paul Edwards,
“Of course and that is fine. There is nothing wrong with that. We are not recommending the use of masks at this stage, except for when you talk about the people from the airport, the healthcare workers, because they will be the individuals who would be more exposed if there are cases out there, and especially if there are individuals who come in with flu like symptoms.”

Jacqueline Godwin,
Parents tonight they are very concerned about their children in school. What advice you have for school children and parents?

Dr. Paul Edwards,
“I want to say to any parent who has a child who shows any flu like symptoms for that child to remain at home. Remain at home and take that child to the nearest health facility to be examined by a healthcare provider and then they will provide the best information there. At the same time, when we talk about a school environment, if a teacher notices that a child is presenting signs and symptoms, make immediate contact with the parents for that child to go back home.”

And if that didn’t answer all your questions, a national hotline has been opened. The number is 629-5604 and the person answering is Nurse Augustina Eligio, who is stationed at Ministry of Health headquarters. The hotline is only open from 8:00 am to 8:00 pm. And for more public information, there will also be a press conference tomorrow morning at 9:00 am at the office of the Central Health Region, Ministry of Health located at St. Joseph Street and Princess Margaret Drive. And we’ll have more later on, as Keith Swift sampled opinion on the street where there was a curious mixture of fatalism and genuine fear.