The Prime Minister held his long delayed quarterly press conference
today. Actually, it’s become bi-annual because his last press conference
was 6 months ago. We point out the interval – because the farther apart
the events – the longer the event – and today’s topped all
records – with the press conference ranging unto two hours and ten minutes.
It opened with an hour long update on all relevant matters by the Prime Minister
– ranging from the sagging economy to discounts on trade licenses at City
Hall. There wasn’t very much good news, and the prognosis on the economy
was the worst of it. Here’s more.
Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
“To be blunt, the news is not good.”
PM Barrow was talking about the economy – all indicators are down and
Belize.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“It has to be well and truly said that our economy is in recession.”
Barrow says it’s caused by the global financial crisis. Tax revenues
are down sharply, almost 10% compared to last year – due mostly to a sharp
decline in imports which fell by a staggering 20%. Overnight visitors also went
down by 5% - meaning tourism spending went down by $12 million. It is a dismal
picture.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“The Statistical Institute of Belize had forecast GDP growth for this
fiscal year at 2.5%, I think marginally higher than the IMF had done. But the
indicators now suggest in fact a dramatic swing of at least 3% which if these
indicators hold will result in a contraction, a negative GDP growth for 2009.”
And the only hope is project funding.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“We are able looking forward to feel relatively comfortable with respect
to the developmental agenda still being able to at least inch forward.”
And that uneasy way forward will be watch-dogged by another Cabinet subcommittee.
Hon. Dean Barrow,
“We have formed a Cabinet subcommittee to look particularly at the
operations at Customs and at the GST to see how we can come up with way to assist
in providing the kind of efficiencies that will make absolutely sure that we
are not being short-changed with respect to revenue collections. I am not pointing
any fingers but it is clear that as things tighten, the incentive for people
to avoid taxes as much as possible increases.”
Imports into the Corozal Free Zone were hardest hit, those experienced
a decline of 38.9%. And more than all that, next year the superbond interest
rate will see a step-up, meaning payments go up by US$10 million. On the very
slender upside, the Prime Minister says he expects that with the US economy
rebounding, tourism spending should increase next year.
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