After a blessedly slow hurricane season, with November here, it was
just beginning to look like Belize might be home free....but it won’t
be that easy to escape this hurricane season unscathed. Tropical Storm Ida –
the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed this afternoon
off the coast of Nicaragua. It is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 miles
per hour and it is moving northwest at about 6 miles per hour. And that is the
news tonight because that northwest track has it heading in Belize’s direction.
So is Tropical Storm Ida a threat? That is what we asked Meteorologist Frank
Tench.
Frank Tench, Meteorologist
“The model products are suggesting that there is a good chance for
this system to intensify over the next few days and model forecasts are suggesting
a variety of paths with the most probable path that the storm will emerge over
the northwest Caribbean by Saturday morning.”
Keith Swift,
“When will it affect Belize?”
Frank Tench,
“At this time the threat of this form to Belize is very minimal but
project paths do suggest that the storm would be over the waters of the northwest 
Caribbean by Saturday morning and from that point of view, monitoring the system
is of greatest importance.”
Keith Swift,
“When will we know if it will be a threat to Belize?”
Frank Tench,
“Well that is a day to day situation because first the storm has to
move over land, either over Nicaragua or Honduras between today and Friday and
then once it emerges back over the waters of the northwest Caribbean on Saturday,
we still have to monitor the progress and the state the storm is in once it
gets over the waters. So it is too early to really say how much it is going
to affect our country.”
Keith Swift,
“Worst case scenario, will it be mainly a rain event?”
Frank Tench,
“At this time it seems that most of the rain is going to remain over
the sea or along the coast over the next few days as the storm heads nearer
to the coastland of Belize. And also fairly strong winds will increase as early
as tomorrow along coastal waters of Belize.”
Keith Swift,
“For the person at home watching tonight, what is your advice to them?”
Frank Tench,
“Monitoring the progress of the system on a day to day basis, listen
to the report issued by the weather service. That would be the key thing for
the general public to do at this time.”
The storm is moving slowly and experts predict that it will likely
strengthen into a hurricane. It is the 9th named storm in a season that many
thought was all but over. Tench says that there’s a reason the season
doesn’t end until November 30th.
Frank Tench,
“Storms have occurred in November before. For Belize it is probably
going to be a rare thing to track a storm in November but storms do occur in
November and the fact of the matter is the hurricane season ends officially
November 30th.”
Keith Swift,
“And this has been a very quiet season, especially for us here in this
part of the Caribbean. Where did this storm come from?”
Frank Tench,
“It comes from the preferred area where storms generally tend to form
this time of the year, the western or southwest Caribbean. That is the preferred
area that storms tend to form at that beginning and at the end of the hurricane
season. So from that point of view, it is not unusual.”
It is of note that both hurricanes Hattie and Mitch formed in the southwest
Caribbean. Click here to track Ida.
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