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Is the recession tailing off? That’s what the latest figures from The Statistical Institute of Belize show. The Institute’s most recent figures for the third quarter 2009 Gross Domestic Product show a contraction of 0.2%. That’s the smallest contraction in the GDP since the start of 2009. The first quarter showed negative growth of 2.2%; the second quarter was negative 1.9%, and now the third quarter is a marginal negative 0.2%. But while those are the statistics, ask any business person and they’ll tell you sales have been down sharply, in the range of a 20 to 25% downturn.

Speaking with us yesterday, the Prime Minister conceded that the figures are one thing but reality is another. Yet still, he projects that those figures show the economy rebounding from negative growth when the fourth quarter statistics are in.

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
“I imagine that the fourth quarter of the year wills how no contraction when the statistics are in because that is when there is seasonal increase of activity, especially where imports are concerned. The point being then that the trajectory shows that things are certainly not getting worse, I don’t know if getting better is the appropriate term but clearly there is an improvement and the path seems to suggest that over the next fiscal year we will return to growth. To support that is the fact that the global recession is lifting, albeit slowly, and so I believe we can be confident that in the fiscal year 2010-2011 the economy of Belize will see a return to growth.”

The figures show that the fishing sector showed the sharpest contraction in the third quarter, with a negative growth of 8.3%, while the Wholesale and retail sector was down 7.4%, and tourism was down 5.4%.