7 News Belize

Tropical Weather System Could Be Ominous for Belize
posted (August 17, 2011)
There is a tropical wave over the west central Caribbean this evening - and it is one that bears watching because it is south of Jamaica, or southeast of Belize in open waters.

It is not a storm at this time, but this evening, forecasters are saying that it has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

We spoke to Chief Met Officer Dennis Gonguez about what level of awareness Belizeans should exercise as we continue to monitor this disturbance:

Dennis Gonguez - Chief Meterological Officer, Belize Met Services
"At this moment, there is a fairly active tropical wave located some 930 miles east of Belize. And although we're seeing some circulation at about 7,000 - 10,000 feet, the circulation has not translated down to the surface as yet. However, as the system heads more westward toward our area, conditions become more conducive for development. So we should see that 30% probability for development as time goes by. Within the next 24 to 36 hours, quite possibly, we could be seeing a tropical depression to the south of Jamaica."

Monica Bodden
"What is the worst-case scenario?"

Dennis Gonguez
Well, the system is moving pretty fast at about 15 - 20 miles per hour. If it continues at that pace, then the development process will be a bit slower. So the worst-case scenario, at this time as it looks, would be a tropical depression, or a weak tropical storm. In any event, whether the system develops or not, we can expect some rains over the weekend - some significant amount of rain. Pay attention to the the system, and the Met Service in its regular broadcast, will be giving updates as it moves toward us. So, it's not a reason to be worried at this time, but be alert and aware that something is out there, and there could potential for it to develop."

The 6:00 pm report from the National Hurricane Center says that, quote

"AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION."

And while that is good news, the report adds that

"THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."

The report concludes that, quote:

"THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH."

We'll keep watching - and you should too starting with tonight's weather report - which is coming up later on in the news.

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