Twelve days ago the Independent launched a poll. It generated a lot of heat, but not much light. And that's because the sample was taken three months earlier. Some of the 40 questions seemed distinctly suspect, and the funding for the project was deliberately obscured.
But it did show an electorate that was largely undecided, as almost a third of the voters couldn't say if they would vote UDP or PUP.
Tonight the news is that a new - smaller poll - executed last week, shows the very same thing.
This poll was commissioned by Karim Berges - a businessman who is the former national campaign manager for the UDP.
And while his history leans towards the UDP - the polls do not. He told the media today he commissioned the telephone poll because he wanted a more accurate snapshot:..
Karim Berges, commissioned poll
"It's independently done by me. I on one hand, have been testing the electorates throughout the country. Wherever I go I ask various questions to partisan people; to none partisans; and just curiosity from shop to people on the streets; business people that I encounter and I've been pulsing the people for quite some time. And I've been estimating that the next general elections will be a bit too close to call. That was my impression. Nevertheless, I wanted a scientific analysis of it."
Jules Vasquez reporting
So for that he turned to Yasmin Andrews who did three polls previously.
Yasmin Andrews, design poll
"Our poll so far has been very credible, reliable, accurate and consistent because we just report what it is. Our own opinion and our own perspective have nothing to do with statistics or numbers. If I don't like you, I won't change the numbers that it's giving you. I will give you what it is. That's it. At the end of the day, it's our credibility that is at stake. But this is what we have, and these are the figures."
"What we are saying is as precise as we can, as fully objective as we can, as fully professional as we can without skew or any interest at all. We have done a lot of polls before, and over a time it has proven to be very accurate and reliable."
For this one, she sampled 233 voters by land line phone last week, Thursday to Saturday, and asked them 12 questions each. What she found surprised them:
Karim Berges
"This poll now, the results of it are as raw as they come. There is no tweak or touch to it."
And the results show an undecided electorate, and a razor thin margin between UDP and PUP.
When asked which party they will vote for in the next election, 32.7% of the voters said UDP, 30% said PUP - less than 3% which is within the margin of error. Most importantly 32.7% of the respondents said they were undecided.
When asked who they think will win the next general election, an equally thin 42.6% said UDP while 40% said PUP.
56.1% - more than half of the respondents said they are not satisfied with the government, but when asked if they would like the PUP to be in government, a stronger figure 67.7% said no.
A similar number 67.3% said their quality of life has not improved with the current government.
The poll numbers show an electorate that is undecided and generally unimpressed with the government but not at all ready to give the PUP a second chance.
Jules Vasquez
"You are a former functionary of the UDP and obviously your poll would be more sympathetic to the UDP."
Karim Berges
"We didn't design the numbers, we design the questions, as for my own purpose, to gauge the legitimacy of the people that I've been pulsing; for me to say partisan and sympathize with.... all I can tell you is no, I will not bring that to this analysis."
Yasmin Andrews
"Jules our previous polls have shown regardless of what the results, some people might be offended by it and some people might not. Some people might be skeptical and some are not and it is open to different judgments and perceptions and that's fine. That is expected. However, if you are talking about affiliation and whether it is sympathetic, apparently this is what it is. I don't think anyone would interpret it as being any otherwise, but people are entitled to their opinion, but I think it's very not so. It's just being very neutral, and what we present is the numbers we have."
As regards the question of whether they would like the election early, 61% - two thirds of the respondents said they would, but 73% - three quarters of them said they would not want it on the same day as the municipal elections.
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