Last year in the first quarter Belize's economy shrunk by 1.2% – what the economists call "negative growth." This year's first quarter shows a strong
difference: the economy has grown by a surprising 7%. Today, we found out a why at a press conference held by the Statistical Institute of Belize.
Ms. Angelita Campbell, Statistician II
"Production of total goods and services for the first quarter stands 733.8 million dollars. Which is 48 million higher than that of last year same
period. In other words, the production is 7% higher than that of 2014. The production for the primary industry stands at 18% higher than that of last
year. Within the primary industry, the agriculture and forestry sector went up by 19.6% and that be seen in an increase of banana of 22.6%. Orange also
went up by 129% and that is a result of a change in the harvest season. For the first quarter this year, marine products actually went up by 4.5
million pounds, which is the highest we've seen over the years between 2010 and 2015. We also have construction go down by 10.8%. That is explained
because of some ongoing projects being completed. We see hotel and restaurants increasing by 6%. That is explained by an increase in cruise passengers
visitors of 10.5% and that can be explained by an additional 33,000 roughly persons visiting more, in comparison to last year. We also see overnight,
slight decrease not much of roughly 300 persons."
And so while citrus and cruise tourism drove a strong first quarter – the news isn't as good for the balance of trade. Belize's trade imbalance keeps
growing; that means we import WAAAY more than we export - and as a country we are importing more than ever before. Statistician Tiffany Vasquez
outlined that picture.
Ms. Tiffany Vasquez, Statistician II
"In January to April this year, Belize imported goods totalling 647.2 million dollars. This represents an increase of 45.1 million dollars or 7.5% from
January to April of last year. Imports of machinery and transport equipment grew by 5 million dollars due to increase purchases of bottling equipment
and vehicles. Imports of manufactured goods went up 12.1 million dollars and importation of construction supplies continues to grow. We have seen month
after month construction supplies continuing going up and 15 million dollars in transport equipment and we have seen bottling equipment as well. We
have seen a lot of importation of bottling equipment for filling, labelling and sealing bottles. We have an growth in industry there. This is an
illustration showing the trade gap - if you look at the hashed region you can see that the gap is widening and imports trending up and exports trending
down."
And one of the main drivers of that downward trend in exports is Belize's oil industry. There's less oil coming out of the ground at Spanish Lookout –
and oil is going cheap on the international market right now. According to the SIB – it's a very steep and steady decline:…
Ms. Tiffany Vasquez
"Oil is down a 28.3 million dollar drop or a 70% fall in earning from crude petroleum. Such a decline was a result of a 40% reduction in the number of
barrels exported coupled with the drop in the world market price of petroleum."
And the falling price of oil has a lot to do with the consistently low inflation numbers recorded in Belize – which continues to have the lowest
inflation rate in Central America. Marilyn Pinelo-Lee outlined the numbers for April:
Mrs. Marilyn Pinelo-Lee - Economic Statistics Manager
"The inflation rate for the month of April stands at -1%. On average, prices are 1% lower than they were in last April. For the first 4 months of this
year, inflation rate was recorded at -1%. Fuel prices increased form April 2014 to April 2015. Premium decreased from $11.39 to $8.63 per gallon.
Regular declines from $11.13 to $8.78 per gallon. While the highest decrease shows in diesel, down from $10.26 to $7.16 per gallon. If we look at
inflation rate per municipalities, we will notice that the inflation rates decreased except in Punta Gorda and Dangriga. Looking at the region and
inflation rates, we have Panama with 0%. The highest being Nicaragua with 5.7% in the Central American region. Our neighbours Mexico -3.1% and in the
CARICOM region, we have Jamaica with 4.4%"
Mexico's inflation rate at -3% was lower than Belize's….
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