7 News Belize

Recession But No Stagflation
posted (February 26, 2020)
And according to the Statistical Institute, the consumer prices in Belize were up by 0.2% in January 2020, when compared with January 2019. That's a marginal increase in inflation, but when measured over the last 5 years, the total of those small increases all add up to a cumulative 2.2% increase.

Here's how Statistician II Melvin Perez put the increase into perspective, as well as his analysis on which necessities Belizeans had to pay more for and why:

Melvin Perez - Statistician II
"The inflation rate for the month of January 2020 stood at 0.2%. This means that overall, the cost of regularly purchased goods and services increased by 0.2%, in comparison to January of 2019."

"We notice that for the month of January, it recorded a consumer price index of 104.8, and for January 2020, it recorded a consumer price index of 105, which is the increase for the period is 0.2. This indicates that there was a change during this period, whereby the increase within the various categories was able to off-set the decreases."

"Looking at the trend line, it is clearly showing us how prices have been increasing since January 2015, up to January 2020. Now, if we were to compare January 2020 to January of 2015, an inflation rate of 2.2% will be recorded. This means that the prices for goods and services had increased by 2.2% in January 2020, when compared to January 2015."

"The housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels had a decrease of 1.2%. The food and non-alcoholic beverages category also had a decrease of 0.3%. And the transport category had a significant increase of 3.7%. And for the purpose of this presentation, we group the remaining goods and services into the all/other categories of goods and services, which had an increase of 0.5%. We can now see that the significant increase in the transport category was partially balanced by the decreases in the housing, water and electricity, gas and other fuels, which is why we end up with a small inflation rate of 0.2%."

"Let's look at the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which had a decrease of 1.2%. This was mainly due to a decrease of 1.1% in the home rental costs, as lower prices were recorded in Corozal Town, Belize City, and San Ignacio and Santa Elena Towns. Also contributing to the decrease within this category was liquefied petroleum gas prices, which went down by 12.9%. However, these decreases were partially offset by a 5.2% increase, as the new rates apply earlier in the year 2019 continue to take effect."

According to the SIB, Orange Walk had the highest inflation rate for January 2020 at 2.6%. The Toledo District had an inflation rate of negative 2.1%, while in Corozal, the inflation rate was also negative 0.5%. In the Belize District, remained the same between January 2019 and January 2020.

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