7 News Belize

Turning now to news about this hurricane season, there is a weather system, now known as Tropical Depression 14, that has quickly developed over the last few days. Forecast models are indicating that it will strengthen and bring heavy rains to Belize this weekend.

Several days ago, this system formed from a tropical disturbance in the waters of the Caribbean Sea, just off the coast of Nicaragua. Since then, it has strengthened to a tropical depression, and experts are predicting that it could become a tropical storm by Sunday before it makes landfall.

As a result, there is a tropical storm warning for coastal communities, starting from the Honduras/Nicaragua border, and all the way to the northern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula. Current forecast models suggest that there is a possibility that Northern Belize could suffer severe bad weather this weekend. That's if the storms make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. But, whatever path the storm takes, Belizean meteorologists are advising that there will be heavy rains all over the country.

AN advisory from the National Emergency Management Organization says, quote, "Regardless of development or whether a potential landfall occurs on the country, we need to be prepared for heavy rainfall and possible flooding."

This afternoon, we spoke with Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the National Met Service about the storm, and its forecast track:

Ronald Gordon - Deputy Chief Meteorologist

"The system that you're referring to, we've been monitoring it for the past several. Initially, it came through the Caribbean. It was forecasted to possibly become a depression and enter the North-west Caribbean Sea. And this morning at 9 o'clock, the National Hurricane Centre upgraded it to a [tropical] depression. As of midday, the system was located at latitude 15.4 degrees north, 80.0 west, and moving west at 18 miles per hour, with winds of 35 miles per hour. That position is about 568 east southeast of Belize City. The projected path for that system is for it to continue west, at least for the next 12 hours. And when it gets to the northeast coast of Honduras, it will curve to the west-northwest, and eventually northwest. Most of the reliable models that I have looked at show the system making landfall north of Belize. The cone of uncertainty that the National Hurricane Centre has right now with the system has the lowest possible track of that cone of uncertainty is just north of our borders. So, if the system was to go extremely south, based on the uncertainty, it would make landfall just north of Belize. The other extreme is that it goes through the Yucatan Channel and avoids the Yucatan Peninsula altogether. So, anywhere with that area, there is a possible landfall. However, these tracks could change in time. So, we at the National Met Service will monitor it carefully and see if there are any changes. But as I mentioned, these are most likely scenarios at the moment, that it makes landfall north of the country."

"If the system takes the most southerly track, if it goes on the southern periphery of that cone, it will reach near enough to us for the northern parts of the country to get some gusty winds from that system. And it is likely that most of the country will get some heavy rainfall from this system. Forecast models are indicating up to about 2 to 3 inches, with possible higher amounts, especially in the north of the country. If this system does make landfall on Yucatan, it should be late Saturday evening. So, even on Saturday, we'll start having more rainfall from this system, as it approaches and moves just north of us, based on the current forecast. The districts of Orange Walk and Corozal will be the districts nearer to the centre, of where the system makes landfall. However, the rainfall associated with a tropical system doesn't always happen near the centre. So, my advice is for the residence of the entire country to be on the alert and look out for the possibility of flooding."

The latest 6:00 pm advisory says the "DEPRESSION is SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED and is EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. Right now the MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS Are 35 miles per hours as it moves west at 17 miles per hour. It is expected to approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and the center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. The National Hurricane Center warns that the system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.